NWSL 2024 Playoffs: Quarterfinals Preview
Just like that the 2024 NWSL season which felt like it started yesterday, has flown by and now we head into the playoffs. Can Orlando Pride do a double after winning the Shield? Can Gotham defend their title? Will first-timers Bay FC surprise us? Or will the football scriptwriters dish out a meal we’ve never had before? Let’s preview the quarterfinals.
** All stats are from FBREF.
Orlando Pride vs Chicago Red Stars
Orlando Pride took the league by storm this season. No one saw them coming and they have been a joy to watch. They won the Shield with 60 points, winning 18 and losing twice out of 26 matches, yet to lose at home. Head coach Seb Hines has crafted a system that has been able to bring the best out of every player. Zambian striker Barbra Banda cooking in her debut season scoring 13 goals alongside the evergreeen Marta, forming a deadly duo. The likes of Summer Yates, Emily Sams and Adriana have been consistent and kept this Orlando Pride engine running. All signs point to them going all the way and doing a double.
Chicago were the surprise package in sealing a playoff berth by finishing 8th. Led by former Jamaican Women’s National Team coach Lorne Donaldson who took the helm this season, they’ve been very inconsistent, occassionally showing flashes of brilliance. Losing Sam Staab to injury also didn’t help. The attack has been built around USWNT star Mallory Swanson who finished the Regular Season with 7 goals and 4 assists. A lot of the attacking and creative burden was placed on Swanson who gave life to an blunt attack. Mid-season reinforcements Ludmilla and Julia Grosso were a much needed upgrade but there is a lot left to be desired. It will take time for them to gel but there is a lot of potential so far. The Red Stars are 2nd in the league for xG (expected goals) against: 44.9. They are also 5th in the league for Shots on Target Against: 123. Currently, Orlando’s attack could prove to be a lot for this Red Stars defence.
Prediction: Orlando’s lethal attack and solid backline will get them through. However, Portland Thorns and Gotham have shown that there’s a blueprint to stoppi the Pride. Orlando Pride win.
KC Current vs NC Courage
This season both teams have had the better of the other in the Regular Season with both teams each winning one of their two encounters. Kansas City Current will be the hosts in this encounter and have a strong home record amassing 57 points.
The Current under Vlatko Andonovski have been on fire this season with their high intensity football, their ability to win the ball back and quickly transitions to attack. They have 53.2 xG and 57 goals, both 1st in the league. Their midfield trio of Vanessa DiBernardo, Lo’eau LaBonta and Claire Hutton, have a combined 11 goals and 7 assists; and up front in attack they have the unplayable golden boot winner Temwa Chawinga with 20 goals in her debut season. It is clear to see why they are the favourites along with Orlando.
The North Carolina Courage on the other hand come into this tie having recorded only 9 points away from home. Under Sean Nahas, they are patient in possession leading the league in possession with 57.1%. Midfielder Ashley Sanchez has been the standout for the Courage with 5 goals and 4 assists, she has been the source of creativity for this team with the attack revolving around her. In defence Ryan Williams, Feli Rauch, Kaleigh Kurtz and Malia Berkely have formed a solid partnership and are able to progress the ball in possession. 2023 MVP Kerolin’s return will be a huge boost for a team that has found it difficult to score. NC are 10th in the league for xG which sheds more light on their problem with finishing goalscoring opportunities.
Prediction: NC will need to bring their shooting boots for this one. However, Kanas City at home are unstoppable. KC for the win.
Washington Spirit vs Bay FC
Their most recent encounter ended in a thrilling 2–1 win for Washington. This matchup has the potential to be an all-timer.
Washington Spirit finished 2nd in the Regular Season, scoring 51 and conceeding 28. Under former Barcelona Femeni coach Jonatan Giraldez, they have one of the best pressing structures in the league making it diffcult for their opponents to maintain possession. They are 2nd in the league for tackles won in the midfield 3rd. Their transitions are swift and direct, utilising the creativity of Trinity Rodman who has been on fire this season with 8 goals and 6 assists. She has been crucial to this Washington attack and if anyone can make a difference in this match, it is her. Ouleymata Sarr and Ashley Hatch have been amongst the goals this season with a combined 15 goals and 5 assists, it remains to see if the former will be available for the playoffs. The rookie Hal Herschfelt has been a rock in midfield averaging 2.64 tackles and 1.69 blocks per 90 minutes. Washington have a really good record at home accumulating 31 points in 13 matches.
Newcomers Bay FC under Albertin Montoya have been what I call a ‘chaos team’, in a good way, they’re just really fun to watch. Their style is ahigh-risk-high-reward and their 31 goals scored and 41 goals conceeded shows. Bay FC have the 3rd most tackles in the attacking 3rd which highlights their commitment to winning the ball very high up the pitch. They press very aggresively and are absolutely lethal in transition with African duo Racheal Kundananji and Asisat Oshoala spearheading the attack. Both players have 12 goals and 5 assists amongst each other. The midfield pivot of Dorian Bailey and Kiki Pickett are the engine of the team, breaking up play and supporting that high press. Abby Dahlkemper who joined midseason has added some much needed solidity to their backline and poses a threat from set-pieces. Fullbacks Alyssa Malonson and Caprice Dydasco give the team width and adding more numbers to the attack; Dydasco averages 5.69 progressive passes and per 90 and is in the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons with 1.33 per 90; Malonson on the other hand, is a really good ball-carrier ranking in the 90th percentile for progressive carries — 2.73 per 90. This is a team that can cause a headache for any defence in the league and this is only their first season.
Prediction: Giraldez is no stranger to tournament football and his experience could see his Washington side navigate the playoffs but Bay FC have shown a tendency to surprise when no one expects them to. Washington Sprit win.
Gotham FC vs Portland Thorns
Defending 2023 NWSL Champions Gotham and 2023 Regular Season runners-up Portland Thorns will go head to head. Gotham come into this encounter with the better form: 7 wins and a draw in their last 8 games. Under Juan Carlos Amoros, they play at a high tempo and press very high up the pitch. This season they are 1st in the league for tackles in the attacking third with 111. They have a lot of quality in every department of the pitch: Ann-Katrin Berger, Emily Sonnett, Jess Carter, Rose Lavelle, Esther Gonzalez, Yazmeen Ryan, the list goes on. One of their standout players this season has been Yazmeen Ryan who has 5 goals and 5 assists in the Regular Season. She has the most key passes this season with 51 highlighting her ability to create chances and she got rewarded with a USWNT call-up, hopefully the first of many.
The Portland Thorns have had a rough season so far but somehow managed a 6th place finish to seal a ticket to the playoffs. Led by Rob Gale, they enter the playoffs with only 2 wins and a draw out of 8 matches. There is no doubt the shuffling of the technical team affected them and disrupted momentum for this team. However, you can’t deny the quality in this side. Christine Sinclair, Olivia Moultrie, Sam Coffey, Morgan Weaver and Sophia Smith will be the difference-makers for this side with mainly Moultrie and Sinclair being the source of creativity and chance creation. Her G+A (Goals + Assists) might not look pretty but Moultrie has been crucial to the Thorns’ attack. The 19 year old midfielder is in the 98th percentile for shot-creating actions with 4.36 per 90, 92nd percentile for carries into the final third with 1.89 and averages 5.05 progressive passes per 90. She also very composed in possession and comfortable under pressure. To win this tie, they will need their best players to step and create for their sharpshooter Sophia Smith. The odds are against them but it’s the NWSL, anything can happen.
Prediction: Gotham wins this comfortably, they‘ve been in top form and are stacked to the brim with quality. Their enemy will be complacency in underestimating Portland.
